United Kingdom

MACC PROJECT: Adapting to climate-induced food price shocks in the UK

Adapting to climate-induced food price shocks in the UK project will reveal pathways through which climate-induced food price inflation (climateflation) impacts on health in the UK.
Multiple Authors
  • 281 Page views
  • December 2, 2025
  • 2 min read

Summary

This project will reveal pathways through which climate-induced food price inflation (climateflation) impacts on health in the UK.  The UK is experiencing a cost-of-living crisis featuring a 40-year high in food price inflation of which 60% was attributable to climate change.   

9.7 million adults and 4 million children experienced food insecurity and policy makers were ill-prepared to mitigate impacts on public health. Using historic analysis of the period 2021-4, the project is evaluating the pathways by which climate change and extreme weather events impacted on food prices, and in turn on dietary quality and safety, mental and physical health outcomes and inequalities, and the extent to which policy makers and food businesses worsened or alleviated these health impacts.  

The focus is now on low-income adults and their children and impacts on British farmers is also being investigated. Future climateflation in the UK has not been estimated. Through novel modelling, the project is quantifying estimates of climateflation and predicting the health consequences, making the case and laying the groundwork for a suite of new policies across agriculture, public procurement, supply chain fairness and social welfare (particularly free school meals -breakfast and lunch) to mitigate effects and build resilience.  

Project Details

Research areas

Led by the University of Aberdeen, over the next two years, the aim is to:

i. Model how climate change driven events – including heatwaves, droughts and floods – affect UK food prices

ii. Assess how food prices impact the nutritional quality of UK diets, focusing on supermarket purchases and school food

iii. Understand the impact of climate change driven food price shocks on the health of particular population groups, including families on low-incomes, and British farmers

iv. Inform policy and business practice – across agriculture, public procurement, Net Zero, and social welfare – to ensure the UK can adapt to climate change induced food price volatility

Project Partners

  1. University of Aberdeen
  2. University of Sheffield
  3. London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
  4. Barcelona Supercomputing Center
  5. Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit
  6. The Food Foundation

Contact

Pete Smith – pete.smith@abdn.ac.uk