Compound multi-hazard and air quality risk assessment framework to support seamless climate adaptation

This is the third activity of the Met Office in the MACC programme and has a focus on urban environments

Summary

The urban environment is particularly susceptible to a wide range of hazards and impacts; at first order, because of high concentration of people and infrastructure [exposure]. Moreover, the hazard itself is often modified though urban morphology and people’s activities. Vulnerability often varies significantly across the city, with links to social inequality. Adaptive capacity also varies between different regions and within the city. Capturing and evaluating the spatial risk at different scales appropriately, is paramount when it comes to adaptation measures and options.

From the stakeholder’s perspective, the need for early warnings (from weather to climate scales) is current but also multifaceted. The risk, decisions and response differ for different stakeholders and/or at diferent scales. From the science perspective, it is not always clear what scale and/or granularity of information issuitable/appropriate and for what application. This is one of the biggest gaps in the adaptation landscape. This becomes exacerbated when it comes to the urban environment and compound hazards at different scales.

Project Details

Research Areas

This project aims to address multi-hazard and air quality compounded risks at different scales (complexity) and different lead times (early warnings) over the UK and develop a framework that enables transferable science and scaling up of research outcomes. The concept of Local Climate Zones (LCZ) offers a valuable framework for that.  It represents a classification system comprising 17 distinct classes, with 10 categorised as urban or built up areas and 7 classified based on land cover characteristics. By integrating buildings and surfaces, LCZ provides a classification system tailored for research on urban environments and offers a universal and standardized framework for analysing the physical characteristics of cities.

Research Questions

• What granularity of data is required, for what application, which stakeholders, and what timescales
• How Thresholds / Metrics relate to datasets used
• Link of multi-hazard events to weather patterns / synoptic situation, and changes of these
• Risk of compound events – not the sum of individual ones

Work Plan

This comprises of 4 phases:

1. Climate in different Datasets and  Scales
2. Links/Relationships
3. Deep Dives
4. Synthesis / Framework

Key Outputs / Deliverables

• Development of a scalable risk framework, that explores LCZ to support climate adaptation from neighbour to national scales
• Explore utilisation of weather patterns to support impact-based forecasting at diferent timescales

Project Partners

This work builds on established collaborations and will link closely with other MACC research projects and Hub activities.

Links with MACC projects: ATTENUATE, GP4Streets, Joined Up Landscapes, MACC Hub 

Some other partners:

• Internal Met Office groups with expertise in high resolution datasets, remote sensing, Observations, Air Quality, Health
  • LCRP – London Climate Ready Partnership
  • NHS Wales

Contact

Met Office Lead: Maria Athanassiadou

References

Athanassiadou, M., Baker, J., Carruthers, D., Collins, W., Girnary, S., Hassell, D., Hort, M., et al. (2010). Anassessment of the impact of climate change on air quality at two UK sites. Atmospheric Environment,44(15), 1877–1886.

M Milan, M Dawson, M Athanassiadou, L Blunn (2016). Model-to-model Machine Learning downscaler for urban scales, EGU26

F de Melo Viríssimo, DS Dookie, A Hunt, M Athanassiadou, et al (2026). Piloting climate storylines inadaptation finance as a tool to shift the political economy of adaptation policy and bankability, EGU26

P Kumar et al (inc. M Athanassiadou) (2025), Overlooked considerations in prescribing green and blue infrastructure solutions for urban environments, The Innovation 7(5): 101184

H Moore et al (inc. M Athanassiadou) (2025), Brief communication: Multi-hazard-to-health-outcome (MH2O) pathways: the known, the unknown, and ten most urgent priorities. EGUsphere 2025, 1-8

P Kumar et al (inc. M Athanassiadou) (2025), Urban greening for climate resilient and sustainable cities: grand challenges and opportunities, Frontiers in Sustainable Cities 7: 1595280

P Kumar et al (inc. M Athanassiadou) (2024), Urban heat mitigation by green and blue infrastructure: Drivers, effectiveness, and future needs, The Innovation 5 (2):100588, DOI: 10.1016/j.xinn.2024.100588