COP30 unpacked: why and how Belém could be a turning point for adaptation

The 30th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP30) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will be convened in Belém, Brazil, from 10-21 November 2025. Branded by COP30 President André Corrêa do Lago as “the visible face of the global response to climate change,” adaptation is expected to take centre stage in Belém. Ana Toni, COP30 CEO, has described the conference as a turning point for adaptation.

In his eighth letter to the international community, President Corrêa do Lago emphasizes that adaptation is no longer a secondary response, after mitigation, but “the first half of our survival.” While negotiations on the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) will be at the core of discussions, adaptation is also expected to feature prominently across the broader agenda, from finance and nature to NDCs, NAPs, and the thematic pillars of the Climate Action Agenda, spanning agriculture, urban resilience, nature protection, industry and more.

This article outlines critical adaptation-related topics expected to dominate negotiations and broader public discourse, highlighting challenges, opportunities, and implications for the years ahead.

What’s unique about COP30

• Implementation COP: If COP29 was labelled as the ‘finance COP’, President André Corrêa do Lago is pushing for COP30 to be the ‘implementation COP’ – focused on delivering and scaling up existing initiatives rather than announcing new ones. Central to this vision is the concept of mutirão (a term rooted in the Tupi-Guarani language that signifies collective effort) which will serve as a guiding principle for COP30, encouraging every stakeholder, from governments to communities, to contribute to implementation.
• Multilateralism and cooperation as matters of survival: COP30 will take place amid deep geopolitical tensions, with Brazil emphasizing the need to “set differences aside”, reinvigorate international cooperation and strengthen South-South partnerships. 
• Location and symbolism: Hosted in the Amazon, COP30 will be the first COP held in the world’s largest tropical forest, an emblem of both vulnerability and resilience. The location is intended to foreground issues like deforestation, biodiversity loss, forest and nature protection, and Indigenous Peoples. On the other hand, IISD’s Jennifer Bansard argues that “for many negotiators, it doesn’t matter where the conference takes place.”

“Our ability to implement the adaptation provisions of the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement through enhanced international cooperation will determine whether we evolve not only to survive, but to become the best version of humanity – grounded in dignity, justice and solidarity.” Eighth letter of the COP30 President (published 23 October 2025)

Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) – Finalizing a list of indicators to assess progress toward the GGA

One of the most significant aspects of the Belém negotiations will be concluding the UAE-Belém Work Programme on the GGA, launched at COP28. Though technical in nature, the discussions are anticipated to be politically fraught – reflecting the seminal, wide-ranging implications of the decision. 

Indicators to measure progress toward the GGA: As a defining element of the work programme, negotiators are tasked with deciding on a set of indicators for tracking adaptation action and support. These indicators are considered crucial for assessing progress towards the targets outlined in the UAE Framework for Global Climate Resilience on water and sanitation, food and agriculture, ecosystems, infrastructure, health, livelihoods, cultural heritage and a range of targets related to the adaptation planning and policy cycle. Eight groups of technical experts have whittled down thousands of proposed indicators to a refined list of 100. This list will now serve as the basis for negotiators’ discussions – and hopeful agreement – in Belém. 

Beyond 2030 – the Baku Adaptation Roadmap (BAR) process: The BAR was adopted in COP29 to create a process for supporting the implementation of the GGA beyond 2030. However, Parties remain divided on the modalities and scope of this roadmap. COP30 will therefore be pivotal in determining how the BAR is operationalized and integrated into long-term adaptation governance.

Finance for adaptation – Converting promises into action and narrowing the mitigation-adaptation finance gap

Ana Toni, COP30 CEO, recently noted in an interview that while “the finance COP was held in Baku — because it was necessary to close the rulebook with the NCQG — financial discussions will undoubtedly remain a major focus at COP30.” In other words, commitments were made at COP29, but COP30 must be about turning those promises into concrete financial flows. Finance is crucial for delivering both adaptation and mitigation and will therefore be a key measure of success for many in Belém.

According to UNEP’s latest Adaptation Gap Report, developing countries will face annual adaptation costs of US$310–365 billion by 2035, with needs that are 12–14 times as much as current finance flows.

New adaptation finance target: At COP26, developed countries pledged to at least double their collective adaptation finance from 2019 levels by 2025. As of 2022 (the most recent reporting year) they appeared broadly on track to meet that goal. Yet declining multilateral development bank contributions and cuts to official development assistance now threaten that trajectory. Under current trends, the Glasgow Climate Pact target is unlikely to be fully realized. With 2025 marking the end of the current commitment, there are growing calls to establish a new target at COP30 or a clear pathway toward one at COP31. Developing countries are expected to advocate for a tripling in adaptation finance from 2025 levels to 2030.  Discussions will not only centre on the quantity of finance but also its quality, predictability, accessibility, and speed. The balance between public and private flows will be scrutinized, with many developing countries insisting that adaptation finance should primarily take the form of grants, not loans, to avoid deepening debt vulnerabilities.

From Baku to Belém: At COP29 in Baku, countries agreed on the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) on climate finance, committing developed countries to mobilize at least US$ 300 billion per year by 2035, with the aim of mobilizing US$ 1.3 trillion in total climate finance flows to developing countries annually. Parties also mandated the creation of the Baku-to-Belém Roadmap, designed to operationalize the NCQG and guide the scaling up of finance. Brazil’s Ministry of Finance are convening a Circle of Finance Ministers to drive its implementation and its associated report will serve as a key deliverable for COP30. However, the lack of a specific adaptation finance sub-goal remains a key gap.

Additionally, calls are growing for the replenishment of the Adaptation Fund and the LDC Fund both vital lifelines for vulnerable countries, yet currently underfunded.

NDCs and NAPS – Embedding ambition and coherence

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs): NDCs are climate plans submitted individually by each country outlining their commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Parties were due to submit new or updated NDCs by February 2025. Yet as of mid-year, 95% had missed the deadline, including major economies like China and the EU. NDCs don’t have a dedicated agenda item, so it is currently uncertain whether and how discussions on NDCs will feature in the negotiations. Regardless, it is likely that COP30 will need to confront ambition gaps, including in how adaptation goals are embedded in national commitments.

National Adaptation Plans (NAPs): This year, countries are also expected to submit or update their NAPs which have been referred to as the ‘strategic roadmaps’ for building resilience in the years ahead. NAPs are medium- to long-term plans, outlining countries’ climate risks, adaptation priorities and finance needs. As of 30 September 2025, 144 developing countries had initiated and launched the NAP process, and 67 developing countries – including 23 LDCs and 14 SIDS – had submitted their NAPs to the UNFCCC, along with 11 developed countries. A priority at COP30 will be to finalize an assessment of progress in the development and implementation of NAPs, evaluate findings and agree on follow-up steps.

Nature, biodiversity, forests – Protecting ecosystems as the foundation of resilience

Located in the Amazon, the COP30 President has made clear its ambition to focus attention on forests, biodiversity, and nature protection more generally. 

Synergies across the Rio Conventions: SB62 advanced discussions on synergies among the Rio Conventions under the International Cooperation agenda, inviting submissions to guide next steps. COP30 offers an opportunity to build on this progress by promoting policy coherence at national and multilateral levels, potentially through a continued or new agenda item. Brazil has prioritized these synergies, and Parties and Observers have submitted views to the CBD and UNFCCC on enhancing alignment.

Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF): Set to launch at COP30, the TFFF is a Brazil-led proposal set to compensate countries for preserving tropical forests, with 20% of funds reserved for Indigenous Peoples. If accepted, the TFFF could become one of the world’s largest multilateral funds, but some groups argue that key governance aspects in the design of the fund need to be addressed if it is to be truly effective and inclusive.

Integrating nature into the GGA and NAPs: Negotiators are considering how to embed Nature-based Solutions (NbS) and biodiversity indicators within the GGA framework, linking ecosystem health to adaptation outcomes. They will also be encouraged to meaningfully consider integrating NbS within NAPs. 

Indigenous Peoples – A test for a more inclusive COP

Expected to feature the largest Indigenous participation in COP history, COP30 could be a milestone for the recognition of Indigenous Peoples’ leadership. According to Brazil’s Minister of Indigenous Peoples, Sônia Guajajara, around 3,000 Indigenous representatives from across the world will attend COP, including around 1,000 participating in official negotiations. To institutionalise participation, the Presidency has created the Círculo dos Povos (Circle of Peoples), providing a platform for Indigenous, traditional and Afro-descendant communities.

Yet despite this progress, many Indigenous groups warn that participation risks remaining symbolic without real decision-making power or access to funding. Some key demands by Indigenous Peoples include: 

• Commitment to climate justice, expecting developed countries to take responsibility and protect the communities most affected by climate change.
• The recognition and protection of territorial rights;
• Inclusion and effective participation (‘sitting at the negotiation tables not as guests but as decision-makers’);
• Direct and less bureaucratic access to climate finance, so that it reaches their communities directly;
• Valuing traditional and ancestral knowledge as essential for effective climate action;

Loss and Damage – Overshadowed in the lead-up, but vital for vulnerable nations

While loss and damage (L&D) has received less attention than mitigation or adaptation in the lead-up to COP30, it remains a critical benchmark of progress for many developing countries.

Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD): Set to launch its first call for proposals in Belém, the FRLD begins with at least US$250 million in initial commitments and a planned replenishment cycle in 2027. However, key questions remain regarding the balance between grants and loans, access mechanisms, and fundraising pace.

Santiago Network:  With roughly US$ 40 million pledged to date, the Network provides technical assistance to avert, minimize, and address loss and damage. At COP30, negotiations will focus on expanding its reach and strengthening coherence between the FRLD, the Warsaw International Mechanism, and the Santiago Network.

COP30 Climate Action Agenda – A role for all to play

Complementing the formal negotiations, the COP30 Presidency has established a Climate Action Agenda, a framework to mobilize and align efforts by non-state actors, from cities and civil society to Indigenous groups and the private sector. Centred on the principle of mutirão, it aims to ensure that implementation is inclusive, just, and measurable.

The Agenda is structured around six thematic pillars, each translating the Global Stocktake’s findings into real-world initiatives:

1. Transitioning energy, industry and transport;
2. Stewarding oceans, forests and biodiversity;
3. Transforming agriculture and food systems;
4. Building resilience for cities, infrastructure and water;
5. Fostering human and social development;
6. Unleashing enablers and accelerators including on financing, technology and capacity building

Adaptation is expected to feature across all of these thematic pillars.

Conclusion

COP30 arrives at a deeply unstable time. Mounting geopolitical tensions, a retreat in international aid, and wavering US leadership risk undermining collective progress. Yet these challenges also open space for new opportunities and coalitions – from emerging economies to Indigenous and local actors as well as the private sector – to redefine what climate leadership looks like. Belém’s success will hinge on whether nations can go beyond narrow self-interest and translate mutirão, collective effort, into real implementation.