Building resilience to flooding in Wales 2050

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Summary

The Building Resilience to Flooding in Wales by 2050 report from the National Infrastructure Commission for Wales sets out a vision for a flood-resilient future. It highlights the scale of current and future risks, the need for long-term strategic planning, and the integration of nature-based solutions and community engagement. The report calls for stronger governance, sustainable funding, workforce capacity, and transparent data to ensure Wales can adapt effectively and become a centre of excellence in flood resilience and climate adaptation

Background and context

Flooding is one of the most serious climate risks that Wales faces. One in every seven (300,000) properties in Wales are at risk of flooding; with an additional 400 properties also at risk from coastal erosion. These risks will rise with climate change, with more frequent and severe floods, rising sea levels and faster rates of coastal erosion. The flooding caused by storms Dennis and Ciara in 2020 highlighted Wales’ vulnerability; infrastructure across Wales was badly affected, including road and rail closures, and landslides at coal tips. The UK Committee on Climate Change (UKCCC) warned that adaptation is lagging, with data gaps, outdated planning systems, and fragmented responsibilities undermining resilience.

The National Infrastructure Commission for Wales (NICW) project was commissioned to consider how Wales can become resilient by 2050. Its remit was to:

• Create a shared long-term vision for flood resilience
• Improve the resilience of homes, businesses and infrastructure
• Strengthen collaboration, governance and community preparedness

Research

NICW’s work was structured around four key research streams:

1. Vision 2050 – Arup developed a long-term vision for a flood resilient Wales, applying futures-thinking to anticipate different climate and social scenarios. This work looked beyond the usual short policy cycles to explore what resilience could mean for communities, infrastructure and ecosystems by mid-century. It aimed to create a shared narrative that could unite government, agencies, and the public around common goals for 2050.

2. Strategic and spatial responses – JBA Consulting explored integrated catchment and coastal-zone approaches, moving beyond piecemeal interventions. Their work highlighted the importance of working with natural processes and planning at the scale of whole river catchments and coastal cells. The intention was to identify spatial strategies that could reduce risk while also enhancing biodiversity, land management, and community well-being.

3. Funding and workforce – Miller Research analysed the challenges of short-term and fragmented funding, alongside skills shortages and workforce capacity. The review emphasised that current stop -start funding cycles undermine the ability to deliver long-term resilience. It also pointed to the need for a better-trained and sufficiently resourced workforce across engineering, ecology, and community engagement to meet the scale of adaptation required.

4. Land use planning – JBA examined issues with Technical Advice Note (TAN 15), planning data gaps, and the need for anticipatory land-use strategies. The research showed that current planning frameworks are often reactive and inconsistent, leading to new developments being placed in areas of flood risk. It called for stronger integration of flood risk into planning policy and better use of data to inform long-term, anticipatory decisions about where homes, businesses, and infrastructure should be located.

Summary of findings: The issues

The report identifies eight cross-cutting themes:

Community engagement and empowerment: Communities have limited involvement in decision-making. People must be supported to actively participate in decisions through citizens’ assemblies, juries and citizen science.

Funding flood resilience: Current funding is fragmented and short-term. Resilience needs long-term, diversified, and collaborative funding to deliver at the scale needed.

Integrated approaches: Existing responses are siloed. Flood and coastal resilience needs to be embedded within catchment and coastal systems thinking.

Nature-based solutions: Stakeholders want to see more ambitious uptake of NFM. While pilots exist, adoption is patchy. Wales should lead on regenerative farming, spongier cities, and catchment-scale nature restoration.

Data accessibility and transparency: Flood risk data is difficult to access and poorly integrated. The report stresses the need for predictive, open-source, transparent data to build trust and preparedness.

Long-term planning: Current planning horizons are 10 years. The report calls for anticipatory planning up to 2050 and beyond, embedding adaptation into infrastructure design, investment, and governance.

Education and awareness: There are major gaps in skills, training, and flood literacy. Flood risk should be embedded in the Curriculum for Wales and in councillor and community leader training.

Governance and policy: Roles and responsibilities are unclear. “Innovation is the exception rather than the rule.” The current governance system is overly complex, with overlapping responsibilities and weak accountability.

NICW Recommendations

Governance, structures, and policy

• Establish a Water Commissioner by 2026, with authority to coordinate at a national scale, oversee catchment planning, and simplify governance
• Introduce a 30-year National Flood and Coastal Erosion Resilience Strategy by 2026, streamlining existing plans and embedding long-term resilience
• Recognise Nature as a stakeholder by 2028 – ensuring ecosystems have a legal voice or representation in decision-making
• Implement TAN 15 immediately and create a consistent national flood risk metric
• Set up regional and local catchment partnerships by 2026, supported by citizen juries and pilot projects

Collaborations, partnerships, and community

• Create a Water Resilience Forum by 2027 to coordinate across government, agencies, utilities and communities
• Establish citizen juries/assemblies by 2027 to ensure inclusivity and equity in decision-making
• Streamline Flooding and Coastal Erosion Risk Management (FCERM) into catchment resilience strategies by 2026, aligning with Well-being of Future Generations goals

Funding and capacity

• Establish a cross-sector Climate Change Adaptation Fund by 2026, with a focus on Natural Flood Management (NFM) and resilience
• Extend and align the FCERM capital investment programme with multi-year budgets and wider adaptation needs
• Diversify funding sources by 2030 – including crowd-sourcing, philanthropy, corporate ESG, and nature finance credits
• Set up a taskforce by 2027 to scale NFM delivery and financing
• Provide subsidies for low-income households to install property-level flood resilience measures

Awareness, skills and data

• Integrate flooding into the Curriculum for Wales, and run national awareness campaigns to improve flood literacy
• Develop “blue skills” and a Water Environments discipline by 2028, including apprenticeships and councillor training
• Mandate open data standards by 2028 – centralising flood and river health data, early warning systems, and local registers of vulnerable residents
• Ensure transparent monitoring of TAN 15 compliance, with open public reporting to build trust

Conclusion

This report underscores the urgent need to build resilience to flooding in Wales by 2050 through a long-term strategic approach that integrates nature-based solutions and community engagement. Strategic and spatial planning, adequate funding and workforce capacity, and effective land-use policies are essential, alongside transparent data, education, and skills development to empower action. By fostering collaboration, inclusivity, and innovative approaches, Wales can become a centre of excellence for flood resilience and adaptation, ensuring a sustainable and resilient future for generations to come.

Citation

National Infrastructure Commission for Wales. 2023. Building Resilience to Flooding in Wales by 2050. Cardiff: https://nationalinfrastructurecommission.wales/building-resilience-to-flooding-in-wales-by-2050-report/

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