Adapting to climate change: Progress in Northern Ireland

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Summary

This report provides the Climate Change Committee’s (CCC) independent assessment of progress in adapting to climate change in Northern Ireland, conducted during the second Northern Ireland Climate Change Adaptation Programme (NICCAP2). The CCC finds that while the current programme (NICCAP2) contains some necessary elements for a vision of a well-adapted Northern Ireland, overall planning remains at an early stage. There is only limited evidence of on-the-ground delivery, and unacceptably large data gaps prevent a full assessment of progress for almost two-thirds of adaptation outcomes. The CCC concludes that the next adaptation programme (NICCAP3), due in 2024, must go much further than its predecessor. (The draft programme has been released for public consultation, with responses accepted until August 4, 2025.)

Methodology

The CCC’s assessment framework evaluates progress against key outcomes needed to build climate resilience. The assessment considers policy development across the entire period of NICCAP2 (2019-2024), including actions both within and outside the formal programme to ensure comprehensive coverage. For each outcome, progress is scored in two distinct areas:

1. Policies and plans: Assessing whether critical policy and planning milestones are in place and are sufficiently ambitious.
2. Delivery and implementation: Using indicator-based evidence to assess whether tangible actions are reducing climate vulnerability and exposure on the ground.

A primary challenge noted throughout the report is that the absence of relevant data is a key barrier to a full assessment.

Barriers

The assessment identified several profound barriers hindering Northern Ireland’s progress on climate adaptation:

• Limited scope of current programme: Preparation for climate change in areas falling outside the formal scope of NICCAP2 is noticeably poorer. Key sectors such as health, energy, and water supply were largely excluded from the programme, resulting in a low level of planning and an inability to evaluate progress.
• Early-stage and inconsistent planning: Across key areas, most of the critical policy and planning milestones needed to deliver adaptation are not yet in place. Many crucial environmental strategies have been drafted but await Executive approval to be published, hampering progress.

Figure 3 from the CCC report, visually representing the adaptation areas with limited or no actions in NICCAP2. The inner ring represents policies and plans, while the outer ring represents delivery and implementation. The large areas of red and white illustrate the insufficient progress and unevaluated outcomes in critical sectors like Health, Energy, and Water Supply.

• Limited evidence of delivery: Despite the critical importance of adaptation, there is only limited evidence of tangible actions being implemented on the ground to reduce climate risks.
• Significant data gaps: The absence of relevant data is an “unacceptably large” barrier. This prevented a definitive judgement on delivery and implementation for almost two-thirds of the adaptation outcomes. Data to evaluate resilience either does not exist, is not public, or does not allow for trend analysis.

Outcomes and Impacts

The impacts of these barriers are evident across Northern Ireland. The report’s findings can be illustrated by examining three representative areas that highlight different types of failure:

1. A sector with plans, but worrying progress: Nature (Chapter 2: Nature)

The Nature sector was included in the adaptation plan, but its condition is still concerning. This represents a failure in delivery despite having a plan. Available indicators for the overall ecological health of terrestrial and freshwater habitats are either showing some improvement from a low base or declining. Marine and coastal habitats show a more mixed picture, with the extent of Marine Protected Areas exceeding targets but most coastal habitats in unfavourable condition.

• For terrestrial habitats, most Areas of Special Scientific Interest (ASSIs) are not in favourable condition; overall, only 38% of their features were found to be in favourable condition. For example, only 9% of woodland features were in a favourable state.

2. A sector with actions, but severe problems: Infrastructure (Chapter 8: Transport)

The Infrastructure sector shows some action, but the scale of the problems remains severe, highlighting that current efforts are insufficient. Monitoring of the rail network is increasing but there is no reporting on weather related delays or incidents. Available indicators for roads are limited and showed poor condition for local roads. While there is some consideration of climate projections within the design manual for
strategic roads, there is limited adaptation planning in place and insufficient plans for local roads and rail. There was no evidence that interdependencies across infrastructure sectors are being managed.

• Key transport infrastructure is at risk. For example, 183 km of railway lines are currently at a significant (1-in-30 year) risk of surface water flooding. This risk is projected to increase by 64% by the 2050s under a 2°C warming scenario.

3. A systemically neglected sector: Health (Chapter 11: Health)

The Health sector is a stark example of how critical areas can be systematically overlooked in adaptation planning, representing a failure in the scope and vision of the programme.

There has been a “particular lack of adaptation progress” for population health and the health and social care system. Only one action on health was included in NICCAP2, and there are currently no health plans or strategies that consider climate change impacts on the delivery of health and social care in Northern Ireland.

Lessons Learned

The assessment of Northern Ireland’s adaptation progress offers critical lessons that are highly relevant for any government or organization developing climate resilience strategies. These takeaways represent the core message readers should remember:

• Adaptation planning must be comprehensive and ambitious: The systemic neglect of the Health sector highlights the danger of a narrow approach. Future adaptation programmes must be more ambitious, covering all at-risk sectors, to be effective. This includes outcomes, actions and indicators for the energy sector; water supply; telecommunications and ICT; health; buildings; and finance, as well as interdependencies between sectors, which largely fall outside the scope of NICCAP2.
• Action must follow planning: The findings in the Nature sector serve as a stark reminder that a foundational plan, while essential, is insufficient on its own. Without robust implementation and political will, even well-structured plans will fail to build resilience.
• Data gaps undermine all progress: The inability to assess two-thirds of adaptation outcomes was a direct result of “unacceptably large” data gaps. This teaches a critical lesson: without a well-funded, consistent monitoring framework, it is impossible to manage what cannot be measured, making it difficult to justify investment and track success.
• Engagement throughout development enables effective adaptation: The assessment found that awareness of how adaptation relates to different policy areas varies across the Northern Ireland Government, which can make it difficult for policy leads to effectively integrate adaptation into their respective domains. The development of NICCAP3 offers a critical opportunity to strengthen engagement across government, civil society, and the public to raise awareness of climate risks and improve the integration of adaptation into diverse policy areas.

Recommendations

The CCC concludes that the next adaptation programme for Northern Ireland must be significantly more ambitious and action-oriented. The report’s recommendations provide a clear roadmap forward, focusing on:

• Driving policy and legislative action: Key policy milestones must be moved from draft to final publication. This includes publishing outstanding environmental plans like the Environment Strategy and Peatland Strategy, and bringing forward new legislation where needed, for example, on managing coastal change.
• Increasing scope and refining the vision: NICCAP3 must cover the full range of sectors requiring adaptation, including energy, water supply, health, and finance. It should also establish more specific and quantitative targets linked to key performance indicators.
• Strengthening monitoring and closing data gaps: The monitoring and evaluation for the next programme must be strengthened and expanded to fill the significant data gaps. The data availability to assess adaptation delivery in Northern Ireland is lagging behind the rest of the UK and needs to be urgently addressed.
• Embedding resilience into Net Zero planning: The next NICCAP is an opportunity to embed climate resilience within upcoming plans for Net Zero being developed under the recent Climate Change Act. This includes ensuring the new NI Climate Commissioner embeds resilience into planning and that the Just Transition Commission includes adaptation in its remit.

Citation

Climate Change Committee (2023) Adapting to climate change: Progress in Northern Ireland. Available at: https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/adapting-to-climate-change-progress-in-northern-ireland/ (Accessed: 24 July 2025).

Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (2025) Public Consultation on the draft Third Northern Ireland Climate Change Adaptation Programme (NICCAP3). Available at: https://www.daera-ni.gov.uk/consultations/public-consultation-draft-third-northern-ireland-climate-change-adaptation-programme-niccap3 (Accessed: 24 July 2025).