Barnsley Climate Pack

This case study is a summary version of the original text, which can be downloaded from the right-hand column. It highlights some of the climate pack’s key messages, but please access the downloadable resource for more comprehensive details and images/figures which have not been included.

Introduction

This Climate Pack was created by the Met Office in collaboration with Barnsley City Council as an output of the UK Climate Resilience Programme and published in August 2022. This City Pack provides high level, non-technical summaries of climate change projections for an individual city or town. It uses scientific research to provide robust climate information to help decision makers plan for the future, enabling cities and towns to become more resilient to climate change. Urban areas experience unique challenges from climate change. For example, urban environments contain surfaces which don’t soak up and store rainfall, such as tarmac and paving, which might increase flood risk. Urban areas are also affected by the urban heat island effect, which results in higher urban temperatures compared with surrounding rural areas.

What affect’s the region’s weather?

Barnsley is located within the ‘North West’ region of the UK, which includes Cheshire, Merseyside, Greater Manchester, Lancashire, Cumbria and North Yorkshire. Here are some of the types of weather that the region experiences across a year: The range of topography and altitude in North West England provides a varied climate, which includes both the coldest (Cross Fell) and wettest (Lakeland fells) locations in England. In low-lying areas where most urban areas are found, mean annual temperatures are around 10°C. Sunshine hours in North West England range from around 1200 hours in the higher Pennines to around 1500 hours at the coast, with values up to 1550 reached on the Isle of Man. North West England includes some of the wettest places in the UK although this is localised to upland areas which are exposed to westerly maritime air masses. Areas in the lee of these uplands receive significantly less rainfall, including the large urban areas of Manchester, which receive around 800 mm per year. North West England is one of the more exposed parts of the UK and may experience strong winds associated with the passage of deep lows. The frequency and strength of these depressions is greatest in the winter half of the year, with the strongest winds coming in off the Irish Sea from the SW to WNW.

Observed Changes

How are temperature and rainfall changing across the UK?

The maps below show changes in temperature (left) and rainfall (right) from 1991-2020 compared to a baseline period of 1961-1990. We can see that temperatures have risen in all areas across the UK. We can also see that whilst some areas have become drier, more areas have become wetter.

Impacts

Cities and towns across the UK are already experiencing the impacts of climate change. The negative impacts of climate change for urban areas may include: Heat: Increased energy demand for summer cooling. Sea Level Rise: Increased risk of coastal flooding. Heavy rainfall: Increased risk of river and surface water flooding. Health: Increased risk to health from heat stress. Drought: Risk to water supplies from drought. Drainage: Increased disruptions to urban drainage system. Transport: Increased disruption to transport due to heat, e.g. rail buckling. Environment: Increased risk to biodiversity (plants and animals). Energy: Infrastructure such as gas pipes are at high risk from flooding events.

Future Headlines

The climate is already changing, and we are already seeing impacts. But how might the UK’s climate change in the future? The statements below are headline statements from the UK Climate Projections – cutting-edge climate science which provide an up-to-date assessment of how the climate is expected to change in the future:

Projections used in the city pack

The city pack uses the UK Climate Projections (UKCP) Probabilistic Projections at 25 km resolution.

Emission scenarios

Our future climate is determined by ongoing and future greenhouse gas emissions, which are uncertain. To capture this uncertainty, we use emissions scenarios, such as the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). RCPs describe possible future emissions based on assumptions about human activity.

Barnsley

The map below shows the location of Barnsley and the area in focus for this City Pack. Projection information provided within this City Pack is calculated as the average (mean) value across the smaller inset box (a 25 km grid cell). This box may include rural, coastal and mountainous areas as well as urban areas. As such, results for point locations within the grid box may differ from the average result of the box. At 25 km resolution, detailed urban effects are not represented in the model. For urban representation, a higher resolution model is required. The use of UKCP Local (2.2 km) may be more appropriate.

Climate projections for Barnsley 25km grid cell

Understanding climate risk

We are already witnessing the impacts of a global average temperature rise of over 1°C compared to pre-industrial levels. Without global action to limit emissions, we may exceed even 4°C of global warming. The Paris Agreement says that we must limit global warming to well below 2°C, whilst aiming for 1.5°C. The Committee on Climate Change advises the UK to adapt to a 2°C rise in temperatures, whilst assessing the risk at 4°C.

Following COP26, limiting warming to below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels
remains possible but will require bigger emission reductions than currently pledged by nations around the world. Current emission reduction pledges, made as part of nationally determined contributions, are likely to lead to warming above 2°C.

Adaptation and mitigation both help to reduce the risk a city will face from climate change. Mitigation will help to limit the hazard, whilst adaptation can help to reduce exposure and vulnerability. The risk posed by a changing climate and the potential for resultant impacts depend on hazards, exposure, and vulnerability.

Analysing hazards, weather and climate events which may have adverse effects. The occurrence, duration and intensity of which may change due to climate change.

Analysing exposure, the location of people, property and other economic resource, relative to a hazard.

Analysing vulnerability: the likelihood of the exposed people, property and other economic resources suffering adverse effects from the hazard. Vulnerability is, in turn, affected by the capacity of people and places to adapt or respond to the hazard.

Further Information

The City Climate Pack includes QR codes to access further information on the City Packs, datasets, factsheets, and resources on adaptation and resilience. Please see the downloadable Pack in the right-hand column.